Oscar Screenplay Analysis
2026 Nominees vs. 25 Past Winners

The darkest, most unpredictable class in Oscar history

We scored all 9 nominees across 18 craft dimensions and compared them to 25 past Best Screenplay winners. Here's what stands out.

Joy is at an all-time low. The only emotion that dropped versus past winners — every dark emotion is up.
Horror DNA is 5.8× higher than any previous class. Every nominee is labeled Drama, but underneath they're blending more genres than ever.
Scene-by-scene, these are the best scripts we've measured. Pacing, emotion, and unpredictability all hit record highs — but big-picture craft is the weakest.
Premises are weaker than any class we've scored. The concepts don't pop on paper. The execution carries them.
This is the most character-driven lineup in Oscar history. Plot-to-character ratio is 1.84 — past winners average 2.55.
9 nominees scored 25 past winners compared 18 craft dimensions Scene-by-scene granularity
Where 2026 Leads — and Lags

2026 nominees dominate at the scene level — pacing, emotion, unpredictability, and character changes are all significantly above past winners. But script-level metrics like premise, emotional impact, and structure lag behind.

gap
Δ
'26 vs win
▲ 2026 Strengths
Scene Emotion
+24 91 vs 67
Unpredictability
+28 63 vs 35
Scene Pacing
+27 59 vs 32
Scene Plot
+23 79 vs 56
Char. Changes
+22 89 vs 67
Scene Concept
+19 80 vs 61
▼ 2026 Gaps
Premise
-28 31 vs 59
Emotional Impact
-25 51 vs 76
Structure
-24 34 vs 58
Characters
-21 23 vs 44
Originality
-19 54 vs 73
Emotional Fingerprint

The 2026 class runs hotter on every dark emotion — suspense, fear, sadness, and surprise are all 1.5–3.6× higher than past winners. The one emotion that's down? Joy.

Surprise
+61 pts
84 2026 vs 23 winners
Suspense
+45 pts
78 2026 vs 33 winners
Sadness
+28 pts
85 2026 vs 57 winners
Fear
+23 pts
64 2026 vs 41 winners
Empathy
+26 pts
72 2026 vs 46 winners
Joy
-16 pts
39 2026 vs 55 winners
Genre DNA Shift

Every 2026 nominee is labeled Drama — but under the surface, the genre DNA tells a different story. Horror weight is 5.8× higher than past winners, Action is 3.5×, and Sci-Fi is 2.6×. Meanwhile Comedy is at its lowest ever. The entropy score (genre diversity) of 1.76 is the highest of any class — these scripts blend more genres than any previous nominees.

Horror 5.8×
Action 3.5×
Sci-Fi 2.6×
Fantasy 1.4×
Comedy 0.3×
Thriller 0.7×
Genre Entropy
Most diverse ever
1.76 vs 1.60 winners
Top Genre Share
Less dominant
52% vs 54% winners
PCR Average
Most character-driven
1.84 vs 2.55 winners
2026 Standouts
Sinners 84%
Highest Originality

Top marks in unpredictability (93%) and conflict (77%). The most genre-diverse script at entropy 2.08.

Hamnet 94%
Highest Emotional Impact

Near-perfect scene emotion (99%) and empathy (99%). The class's strongest script-level performer.

Frankenstein 99%
Scene-Level Powerhouse

Concept (99%), plot (97%), character changes (99%), engagement (95%). Dominates every scene metric.

Marty Supreme 96%
Most Suspenseful

Suspense and surprise both at 96%. Highest pacing (75%) in the class. Low emotional impact (8%).

The bottom line: The 2026 nominees execute at a scene level that past winners can't touch — but they're weaker at the macro craft that historically wins Oscars. They're darker, more genre-blended, and more character-driven than any class we've measured. The question is whether the Academy rewards the new blueprint or punishes the departure from tradition.



Show Descriptions
Screenplay Title Sorting sorting Genre Sorting sorting P/C/R Sorting sorting
Overall (Scene)
Sorting sorting
Structure/ Plot (Script)
Sorting sorting
Plot (Scene)
Sorting sorting
Move Story Forward (Scene)
Sorting sorting
Characters (Script)
Sorting sorting
Characters (Scene)
Sorting sorting
Characters Changes (Scene)
Sorting sorting
Conflict (Script)
Sorting sorting
Conflict (Scene)
Sorting sorting
High Stakes (Scene)
Sorting sorting
Emotional Impact (Script)
Sorting sorting
Emotional Impact (Scene)
Sorting sorting
Theme (Script)
Sorting sorting
Dialogue (Scene)
Sorting sorting
Visual Imagery (Script)
Sorting sorting
Originality (Script)
Sorting sorting
Concept (Scene)
Sorting sorting
Premise (Script)
Sorting sorting
Screen Play
Blue Moon
DramaR/R/C/R/R83% (8.6)41% (7.8)56% (8.1)16% (7.5)10% (7.4)100% (9.0)78% (7.6)58% (7.6)6% (6.2)12% (6.0)67% (8.0)94% (8.8)37% (8.0)99% (8.7)55% (7.8)35% (8.6)73% (8.3)46% (8.0)
Screen Play
Marty Supreme
DramaR/R/R/R/C83% (8.6)22% (7.6)92% (8.5)92% (8.7)6% (7.3)74% (8.6)95% (8.1)40% (7.2)92% (8.6)83% (8.5)9% (7.1)80% (8.5)37% (8.0)90% (8.4)50% (7.7)18% (8.4)73% (8.3)10% (7.3)
Screen Play
Sentimental Value
DramaR/R/R/C/R83% (8.6)41% (7.8)56% (8.1)16% (7.5)28% (7.7)95% (8.8)85% (7.7)40% (7.2)5% (6.1)12% (5.9)92% (8.5)97% (8.9)77% (8.4)68% (8.1)87% (8.3)22% (8.4)73% (8.3)35% (7.9)
Screen Play
Sinners
DramaR/R/C/R/R90% (8.7)29% (7.7)92% (8.5)69% (8.4)73% (8.1)74% (8.6)91% (7.9)82% (8.0)68% (8.0)64% (7.9)53% (7.9)80% (8.5)37% (8.0)95% (8.5)84% (8.2)30% (8.5)87% (8.4)23% (7.7)
Screen Play
Bugonia
DramaR/C/R/R/R90% (8.7)41% (7.8)92% (8.5)84% (8.6)22% (7.6)87% (8.7)95% (8.1)58% (7.6)81% (8.3)83% (8.5)32% (7.6)87% (8.6)57% (8.2)85% (8.3)50% (7.7)19% (8.4)91% (8.5)10% (7.3)
Screen Play
Hamnet
DramaR/R/R/C/R95% (8.8)62% (8.0)92% (8.5)69% (8.4)49% (7.9)99% (8.9)97% (8.3)58% (7.6)46% (7.5)61% (7.8)95% (8.6)99% (9.1)37% (8.0)85% (8.3)89% (8.4)22% (8.4)94% (8.6)63% (8.3)
Screen Play
Train Dreams
DramaR/R/R/R/R90% (8.7)41% (7.8)56% (8.1)16% (7.5)3% (7.1)74% (8.6)72% (7.5)58% (7.6)2% (5.4)10% (5.7)53% (7.9)97% (8.9)37% (8.0)46% (7.9)84% (8.2)29% (8.5)87% (8.4)46% (8.0)
Screen Play
Frankenstein
DramaR/HR/R/R/R95% (8.8)41% (7.8)97% (8.7)96% (8.8)22% (7.6)95% (8.8)99% (8.5)58% (7.6)76% (8.2)77% (8.3)43% (7.8)97% (8.9)57% (8.2)95% (8.5)70% (8.0)34% (8.6)99% (8.8)57% (8.1)
Screen Play
It was just an accident
DramaR/C/C/R/R90% (8.7)29% (7.7)95% (8.6)96% (8.8)28% (7.7)87% (8.7)99% (8.5)82% (8.0)95% (8.7)90% (8.7)43% (7.8)98% (9.0)26% (7.8)90% (8.4)42% (7.6)31% (8.6)87% (8.4)10% (7.3)