The darkest, most unpredictable class in Oscar history
We scored all 9 nominees across 18 craft dimensions and compared them to 25 past Best Screenplay winners. Here's what stands out.
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Joy is at an all-time low.The only emotion that dropped versus past winners — every dark emotion is up.
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Horror DNA is 5.8× higher than any previous class.Every nominee is labeled Drama, but underneath they're blending more genres than ever.
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Scene-by-scene, these are the best scripts we've measured.Pacing, emotion, and unpredictability all hit record highs — but big-picture craft is the weakest.
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Premises are weaker than any class we've scored.The concepts don't pop on paper. The execution carries them.
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This is the most character-driven lineup in Oscar history.Plot-to-character ratio is 1.84 — past winners average 2.55.
2026 nominees dominate at the scene level — pacing, emotion, unpredictability, and character changes are all significantly above past winners. But script-level metrics like premise, emotional impact, and structure lag behind.
gap
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'26 vs win
▲ 2026 Strengths
Scene Emotion
+2491 vs 67
Unpredictability
+2863 vs 35
Scene Pacing
+2759 vs 32
Scene Plot
+2379 vs 56
Char. Changes
+2289 vs 67
Scene Concept
+1980 vs 61
▼ 2026 Gaps
Premise
-2831 vs 59
Emotional Impact
-2551 vs 76
Structure
-2434 vs 58
Characters
-2123 vs 44
Originality
-1954 vs 73
Emotional Fingerprint
The 2026 class runs hotter on every dark emotion — suspense, fear, sadness, and surprise are all 1.5–3.6× higher than past winners. The one emotion that's down? Joy.
Surprise
+61pts
84 2026 vs 23 winners
Suspense
+45pts
78 2026 vs 33 winners
Sadness
+28pts
85 2026 vs 57 winners
Fear
+23pts
64 2026 vs 41 winners
Empathy
+26pts
72 2026 vs 46 winners
Joy
-16pts
39 2026 vs 55 winners
Genre DNA Shift
Every 2026 nominee is labeled Drama — but under the surface, the genre DNA tells a different story. Horror weight is 5.8× higher than past winners, Action is 3.5×, and Sci-Fi is 2.6×. Meanwhile Comedy is at its lowest ever. The entropy score (genre diversity) of 1.76 is the highest of any class — these scripts blend more genres than any previous nominees.
Horror5.8×
Action3.5×
Sci-Fi2.6×
Fantasy1.4×
Comedy0.3×
Thriller0.7×
Genre Entropy
Most diverse ever
1.76 vs 1.60 winners
Top Genre Share
Less dominant
52% vs 54% winners
PCR Average
Most character-driven
1.84 vs 2.55 winners
2026 Standouts
Sinners84%
Highest Originality
Top marks in unpredictability (93%) and conflict (77%). The most genre-diverse script at entropy 2.08.
Hamnet94%
Highest Emotional Impact
Near-perfect scene emotion (99%) and empathy (99%). The class's strongest script-level performer.
Frankenstein99%
Scene-Level Powerhouse
Concept (99%), plot (97%), character changes (99%), engagement (95%). Dominates every scene metric.
Marty Supreme96%
Most Suspenseful
Suspense and surprise both at 96%. Highest pacing (75%) in the class. Low emotional impact (8%).
The bottom line:
The 2026 nominees execute at a scene level that past winners can't touch — but they're weaker at the macro craft that historically wins Oscars. They're darker, more genre-blended, and more character-driven than any class we've measured. The question is whether the Academy rewards the new blueprint or punishes the departure from tradition.